Prospects are gloomy for the box office in 2012

You should not become too excited regarding the optimistic forecast of MPAA last week about the business of films and the record takings from The Hunger Games. Robert Fishman, the analyst of Nomura Securities warns that after having a first look at the 91-page publication, that chains are in for tough times after the year 2012 for few years and the admission might fall slowly as well as steadily form 2013-2016.

He added that the sale of domestic box office had slid down 3.8% last year to about $10.2 billion and attendance dropped up to 4.2% to 1.3bn, which can be thought as the beginning of emerging secular headwinds which box office is facing.

The data of MPAA shows that the percentage of people going to movies frequently dropped by 20% from 2000-2011 and for those who never attended grew by 7% which is now 33% according to Fishman.

The drop was mostly seen in young people and cinemas will also suffer due to the big studios making much fewer films that they used to. Although this slack was picked by some smaller producers the scale of most of these will not be sufficient to draw the attention of many ticket-buyers who typically turn out to see the productions of big studios.

Fishman also noted that the consumers are rebelling against the costly tickets which include 3D. He also fears that the theaters might be hurt by the release pattern changes like premium VOD. He also told that based on his discussions with other studios, he believed that there might be some push for the premium VOD next year or the end of this year.